Reconnaissance Capital

I’m back after a long hiatus and trouble getting my new website and domains squared away.  More posts to come.

As you know, web logging, known more popularly as ‘blogging’, has grown tremendously.  Much like social networks, such as Facebook and MySpace, bloggers develop web pages to share their thoughts and opinions, doings and activities and, of course, photos.   Better than social networks, in my view, blogs are a more convenient way to stay connected with those that share the same interests. Continue reading →

It’s been three weeks since I last posted.  My hard disk drive on my laptop failed and it took dozens of hours to get all my data back.  With the stroke of luck, I was able to retrieve everything.

I’m fairly diligent in backing up my files and photos, particularly of my 14-month old son, Viktor.  I also have 18 years of my work – research papers, communiqués, spreadsheets and financial models, all of which are personally very valuable.

One night, my wife and I decided to consolidate all the photos and files between our two laptops.  In the process of reorganizing the file folders, I cleared my external hard disk back-up drive so that we didn’t have redundant files and copies upon copies of photos.  The 12 hours I exposed myself to no back-ups my laptop hard disk drive failed.  Years of diligently backing up my files, the one day I risk reformatting the external hard disk drive and boom, my internal hard disk fails.  Wow!  What are the odds?

The situation reminds of the Black Swan.  Former Wall Street stock options trader, Nassim Taleb, wrote his now famous book, The Black Swan, highlighting market risks that most financial models fail to incorporate.  In the business, they’re known as fail-tail risk, the event of an event.  Taleb correctly pointed out that risk is far greater and more frequent than current financial and statistical models estimate, and that investors fail to assess this catastrophic risk in valuing assets. I wrote about flawed financial modeling in my post, Mea Copula. Continue reading →

Chrysler filed for bankruptcy, the first of possibly three. The economic consequences could prolong the recession. Consumers, aware of Chrysler’s bankruptcy, might be reluctant to purchase a Chrysler or Dodge, despite all the Federal government warrantee guarantees. Thus, demand could fall further (Chrysler sales were the worst recently, down 48% among all reported auto makers). Auto suppliers might curtail their business with Chrysler, hampering parts supply or perhaps raise costs. Advertising budgets might be curtailed, adversely affecting advertising agency business and TV and radio ad slots. Many dealerships might be forced to close, leaving empty commercial real estate lots. And, of course, more auto workers, parts makers and dealership personnel could see their jobs lost. But ALL stakeholders are at fault. Continue reading →